For health systems and policymakers weighing the ongoing value of COVID-19 vaccination, economic modeling that converts real-world effectiveness into dollar-per-outcome terms provides a concrete framework for prioritization decisions. A new cost-effectiveness analysis places mRNA-1273 well within thresholds typically considered favorable, offering a clearer financial rationale for continued annual COVID-19 vaccination programs across age and risk groups.
Using a static decision-analytic model with a one-year time horizon and a societal cost perspective, researchers estimated that a single annual dose of mRNA-1273 generates an incremental cost of approximately $23,265 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained compared to no vaccination — a figure that falls comfortably below the conventional US willingness-to-pay threshold of $100,000–$150,000 per QALY. Vaccine effectiveness inputs were drawn from a 2024–2025 real-world effectiveness study for the no-vaccination comparison, and from systematic reviews and meta-analyses for the head-to-head comparison with BNT162b2. The benefit-cost ratio across the licensed target population — spanning 6 months to 64 years with underlying conditions, plus all adults 65 and older — ranged from 1.91 to 7.90 dollars returned per dollar spent, incorporating both direct cost savings and monetized health benefits.
This analysis sits within a growing body of COVID-19 vaccine economic evaluations, most of which have consistently found favorable cost-effectiveness ratios for high-risk populations, though estimates vary substantially by assumed infection rates, vaccine effectiveness duration, and discount rates applied to future health gains. A key limitation here is the static model structure, which does not capture dynamic transmission effects — meaning herd immunity contributions and indirect protection are likely underestimated. The one-year horizon also excludes potential long-COVID burden, which would further strengthen the economic case. The model appears to have received support from Moderna, which warrants cautious interpretation, though the use of independent real-world data and published meta-analyses adds methodological credibility. Overall, this is a confirmatory rather than paradigm-shifting contribution, reinforcing prior evidence that annual COVID-19 vaccination remains economically justifiable, particularly for older and high-risk individuals.